The insurance line that punished multifamily owners from 2021 through 2024 is moving the other way. Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index has US commercial property rates down for an eighth consecutive quarter as of Q2 2026, and for non-catastrophe programs under $1 million in premium, the bracket where a small multifamily portfolio lives, rates fell roughly 10%. The Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers recorded the first average all-lines rate decrease since 2017 in Q1 2026.
Chicago's position in that story is unusually good. National Apartment Association benchmarking puts Chicago multifamily insurance at $528 per unit in 2024, up just 1.9% since 2021, the best performance of the 22 metros it tracks. The national same-store average is $777 per unit, up 55% over the same period. Houston runs $1,233. Seattle nearly doubled. The caveat that travels with the NAA number: it reflects institutional-quality stock in the metro, not small suburban walk-ups, so treat it as a tailwind, not a quote.
8 quarters
Consecutive US commercial property rate declines (Marsh, Q2 2026)
$528 vs $777
Chicago vs national multifamily insurance cost per unit, 2024 (NAA, Mar 2026)
+1.9% vs +55%
Chicago vs national per-unit cost growth, 2021-2024 (NAA)
The two counterweights
First, liability is going the other way: Marsh has US casualty up 7% in Q2 2026 with umbrella and excess up 15%, and commercial auto posted its 59th consecutive quarterly increase. A soft property market does not mean a soft insurance budget. Second, the peril that could end the softening sits directly overhead. As of April 2026 the Insurance Information Institute had Illinois ranked first in the nation for both tornadoes and hail, with 61 tornadoes year to date, equal to the state's 25-year average for an entire year. Hail drives as much as 80% of severe convective storm claims, and roofs carry 70 to 90% of insured residential catastrophe losses.
The practical translation: roof age, roof condition and deductible structure decide whether a specific building gets the soft-market price. That is a capital-plan question, not an insurance question, which is why we treat roofs as a first-class underwriting item.
Sources
- Marsh, Global Insurance Market Index, Q2 2026 (July 22, 2026)
- Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers, Q1 2026 P/C Market Survey (May 2026)
- National Apartment Association, metro insurance benchmarking (March 2026)
- Insurance Information Institute, Illinois severe weather losses (April 2026)
Market commentary, not investment advice and not an offer of securities. Figures are as of the sources' stated dates.