For a decade Chicago was the market institutional capital apologized for. In mid-2026 it is the outperformer. Cushman and Wakefield's Q2 2026 MarketBeat has the Chicago metro at 94.9% occupancy against a national vacancy rate of 8.9%, with effective rents up 3.2% year over year against 1.5% nationally. Yardi Matrix ranked Chicago third of its top 30 markets on year-over-year asking rent growth as of April 2026, behind only New York and San Francisco, while Austin, Denver, Tampa and Phoenix all printed negative.
#3 of 30
Chicago's rank on YoY asking rent growth, top 30 US markets (Yardi Matrix, Apr 2026)
+3.2% vs +1.5%
Chicago vs US effective rent growth, year over year (C&W, Q2 2026)
$3.73B
2025 Chicago multifamily transaction volume, 5th nationally, up from $2.66B (Yardi via MHN)
The driver is the same one working in our own submarket: supply. Marcus and Millichap's 2026 national forecast ranks Chicago second on its National Multifamily Index and projects metro deliveries falling below 4,000 units for the first time since 2012, at the same time the high-growth Sun Belt markets digest the largest delivery waves in their history. Rent growth follows scarcity, and scarcity is now a Midwest phenomenon.
The Cook County caveat
Chicago assets still trade at the highest cap rates of any primary market, and the reason is not a secret. MetLife Investment Management's July 2025 research attributes most of Chicago's decade of underperformance to rising Cook County property taxes, with slow population growth secondary, and it notes the fiscal risk is concentrated in the City of Chicago and Cook County specifically. MetLife's own conclusion is that current pricing overshoots the fundamentals, leaving Chicago apartments trading at a discount to intrinsic value. But a Cook County asset sits inside the risk that discount is pricing, not outside it. That is exactly why tax underwriting, not rent optimism, is where the discipline belongs in this market.
Sources
- Cushman & Wakefield, Chicago Multifamily MarketBeat, Q2 2026
- Yardi Matrix, Chicago and national multifamily reports (April 2026)
- Marcus & Millichap, 2026 National Multifamily Investment Forecast
- Yardi Matrix via Multi-Housing News, top markets for multifamily investment (March 2026)
- MetLife Investment Management, Chicago Multifamily: Fundamentals Outpacing Perceptions (July 2025)
Market commentary, not investment advice and not an offer of securities. Figures are as of the sources' stated dates.